Rob Wilson / 5:38 pm July 24th, 2006

According to this report from Leonard David at Space.com, the Space Frontier Foundation has just released a fairly comprehensive white paper about NASA’s efforts to implement the vision for space exploration (now named - still unofficially at this point - Project Orion). They’re not too happy with it.

Frustratingly, the white paper hasn’t been placed yet on the foundation’s white papers page, but based on Leonard’s article, they would like, for a start, to see all work on the block one (International Space Station) version of the Orion CEV halted, and for NASA to purchase all its ISS crew and cargo transportation from vendors bidding for the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services project.

This looks like a good idea, although it would be prudent for NASA to shepherd the COTS vendors to the point of demonstrating some capability BEFORE they burn their CEV bridge to ISS. Given how long it takes for policy to get changed, the foundation is right to start making the case now. With any luck, their ideas will become mainstream at about the same time as the entrepreneurial space companies are ready to provide the services.

[Update]
The paper is now available here.

While I agree with much of what’s in there, it takes a fairly over-the-top tone which will put a lot of people off. Also, I don’t believe their dire prediction that NASA’s exploration efforts are doomed if they continue along the current path - I think that, like Shuttle and Station, they will succeed on some (largely political) level. It will just be a very expensive and, in terms of getting humanity out of the cradle, a fairly trivial one. I think NASA will make it work technically, but at too high a cost to actually use it for anything more than another flags and footprints exercise.

What I really hope will happen is that events in the private sector, fuelled by COTS, will overtake NASA’s current architectural plans and render them obsolete. I’d have to say it’s a long shot - but it’s better than what’s currently on offer at NASA.

While SFF’s paper is generally saying the right things (if a little shrilly), they are struggling against the fact that they are about five years ahead of the curve. If they were saying this while there was a COTS vehicle out there flying, it would have much more weight. The catch-22 is the danger that COTS gets shelved to pay for Project Orion, and we never get to that point.

SFF has a hard road ahead, trying to get a message out there that the intended recipients aren’t yet ready to hear. But you’ve got to start somewhere, and hopefully, when or if the stars align, and the light-bulbs come on above the right heads, they will be able to say “We’ve been telling you this stuff for the last x years!”